Digital future unwound 人工智能：你不知道的欢乐和忧伤

李星玥

For the past few months, artificial intelligence (AI) has been a much talked about topic in the worlds of both pop culture and science. Last November saw the release of Oscar-nominated and winning biopic, “The Imitation Game”, about the father of the modern computer, Alan Turing. Last month, another Hollywood film about clever robots, Chappie, hit theaters. And here in China, search engine giant Baidu founder and CEO Li Yanhong threw out a bold proposal at the Chinese People’s Political ConsultativeConference. Li’s vision is a project called “China Brain”, aiming to make China the world leader in developing artificial intelligence systems.
就在短短的几个月间，人工智能成为了流行文化和科学界的热门话题。去年11月上映的《模仿游戏》就是关于现代计算机之父艾伦•图灵的一部传记电影；该片获得奥斯卡多项提名，并最终拿下获奖。上个月，好莱坞另一部关于智能机器人的影片《超能查派》也登陆（北美）各大院线。在中国，百度创始人兼CEO李彦宏则在人民政协会议上提出了大胆的提案，建议建设“中国大脑”，意在使中国成为人工智能系统的世界领跑者。

Is artificial intelligence a boon or does it spell doom for humans? In their book The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, authors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, both of whom hail from MIT, US, could barely hide their excitement toward the rise of machines.
对人类来说，人工智能到底是福音还是丧钟？立克•布林约尔弗森与安德鲁•麦凯菲均来自美国麻省理工学院，他们在著作《第二次机器革命：数字化技术将如何改变我们的经济与社会》中都表达出对于机械崛起难掩的兴奋。

According to the authors, we are entering an age of accelerated development of artificial and robotic technology. “Digital machines have escaped their narrow confines and started to demonstrate broad abilities in pattern recognition, complex communication, and other domains that used to be exclusively human,” write the authors. “We’ve recently seen great progress in natural language processing, machine learning (the ability of a computer to automatically refine its methods and improve its results as it gets more data), computer vision, simultaneous localization and mapping, and many other areas.
这两位作者认为，我们正在迎来一个人工智能和机器人技术加速发展的时代。他们写道：“数字机器不再局限于狭小的范围，而是开始在更广泛的领域里大放异彩，模式识别，复杂交流以及其他曾经只专属人类的领域里都有了它的身影。近年来，自然语言处理、机器学习（计算机在获取更多数据后自动改进算法、提高计算结果的能力）、计算机视觉，同步定位、测绘等诸多领域也取得了长足发展。”

“We’re going to see artificial intelligence do more and more, and as this happens costs will go down, outcomes will improve, and our lives will get better.”
“我们将会看到人工智能完成越来越多的事务，而成本却日益下降、产出不断提高，我们的生活也将变得越来越好。”

Bright or bleak future?
前途光明抑或暗淡？

Already AI can help blind people see and deaf people hear. And wheelchairs have been invented that can be controlled by thoughts. We are going to witness more innovations and wonders made possible by AI, according to the authors.
在人工智能的帮助下，盲人可看，聋人可听，轮椅可通过思想控制。因此，该书的作者们还认为，我们将见证人工智能带来的更多创新与奇迹。

However, not all are equally enthusiastic about AI. A February report from the Global Challenges Foundation listed AI, alongside extreme climate change, nuclear war and ecological catastrophe, as “risks that threaten human civilization”. Many pre-eminent scientists share the same concern. Stephen Hawking told the BBC last December that “the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”
然而，并非人人都如此乐观。全球挑战基金会在2月的一份报道中，将人工智能与极端气候变化、核战争和生态灾难并列为“威胁人类文明的风险因素”。许多知名的科学家也表达了同样的担忧。去年12月，史蒂芬•霍金在接受BBC采访时就表示 “全人工智能的发展将意味着人类的终结”。

“It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate,” he said: “Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded.”
他说：“人工智能将能够以不断增长的速度自我提升、自我再设计（自我更新）；而人类由于缓慢生物进化的限制，难以与之抗衡，最终将被取代。”

Hawking’s worry echoed that of Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk, who said in last October at an MIT conference that “we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that”.
美国太空探索技术公司Spacex与环保跑车公司特斯拉的大老板埃隆•马斯克也有着和霍金一样的担忧；去年十月，在麻省理工学院的会议上，马斯克就提出：“我们对待人工智能应十分谨慎。如果让我说目前人类生存最大的威胁，那十有八九就是它了。”

“I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish,” Musk said.
马斯克还说：“我愈发觉得（对于人工智能）应该进行国家或国际层面的管理监督，以确保我们不做傻事。”

李星玥

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李星玥

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李星玥

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李星玥

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李星玥

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