【Investment 0319】告别ESPN盈利阴影 分析师上调迪士尼评级

刘颖

Guggenheim Securities upgraded its rating on Disney (dis) early Tuesday, moving the entertainment giant up from neutral to buy based on the back of high anticipation for its upcoming schedule of movies and new additions to its amusement parks. Disney, which sits at $112.65 in midday trading, now has a 12-month price target of $128 a share, up from $118.

Tuesday’s upgrade shook off worries about ESPN’s profitability, which had been a major concern for many on Wall Street. The Disney-owned sports network has seen its revenue drop over the last five years as more viewers have shifted away from buying cable subscriptions. In 2011, ESPN had just above 100 million subscribers, but that figure has dropped to around 88 million today. Considering the network makes $7 a month per subscription – a figure that doesn’t even include the money made off its many secondary networks such as ESPN2 or ESPN Deportes – Disney is missing out on over $1 billion a year. The shift in viewer’s watching habits has prompted ESPN to look to digital streaming to keep its audience numbers up.

Despite that hiccup, Guggenheim is still confident in Disney partially because it has an extremely strong slate of movies coming. The live-action version of ‘Beauty and the Beast,’ which opens on Friday, is expected to be a huge hit. There are also two ‘Star Wars’ films set to be released over the next year or so, as well as four Marvel superhero installments. As is if that weren’t enough, the coming sequels to smash hits like ‘Frozen’ and ‘Toy Story,’ plus another Indiana Jones movie, which are basically guarantees to keep a ton of money rolling in.

The excitement around some of these movies isn’t just limited to the silver screen. Disney’s amusement parks are set to open up two major new attractions that should prove to be huge boosts to traffic. The first, an ‘Avatar’-themed attraction set to open at Disney World in May, should bring in plenty of visitors eager to experience the highest-grossing film of all time. But it’s likely the second attraction will bring customers in even larger droves. Star Wars Land will open at both Disneyland and Disney Hollywood Studios in 2019.

Disney has been on a strong run over the last six months or so. Shares of the company are up more than 24% after they bottomed out at $90.32 in mid October, shortly before company CEO Bob Iger warned of the potential for lagging earnings for fiscal 2017 thanks to the billions of dollars ESPN laid out to continue to have rights to broadcasting NBA games, among other factors.

刘颖

由于对迪士尼即将上映电影和新开迪士尼乐园非常乐观，投行Guggenheim Securities上调了传媒巨头迪士尼的股票评级，从中性调升为买入。当天迪士尼盘中触及每股112.65美元，Guggenheim Securities将其12个月的目标价由每股118美元升至每股128美元。

此次评级被上调意味着，华尔街不再纠结此前迪士尼旗下体育电视网ESPN盈利不佳。过去五年，ESPN的营业收入持续下滑，越来越多用户放弃付费的有线电视。2011年，ESPN拥有超过1亿订阅用户，如今降至8800万人左右。按ESPN每月向每位订阅者收费7美元计算，不计入ESPN2或ESPN Deportes等二线网络因用户流失减少的收入，迪士尼一年的损失超过10亿美元。观众收看习惯转变促使ESPN转向数字视频流服务以留住用户。

尽管背着ESPN大“包袱”， Guggenheim仍然看好迪士尼，部分原因是预计该司将要上映的电影会表现强劲。本周五真人版的《美女与野兽》首映，业界预计票房会大卖。此外有两部《星球大战》系列影片和四部漫威系列超级英雄电影明年上映。除了这些热门IP“吸金”，迪士尼还将推出《冰雪奇缘》、《玩具总动员》等经典动画续集，还有《夺宝奇兵》系列新一部续集，基本上已经锁定巨额票房。

让分析师兴奋的还不仅是大银幕。他们认为，迪士尼即将开张的两座主题乐园也会人潮汹涌。第一座是今年5月将在美国奥兰多迪士尼世界动物王国迎客的“阿凡达”主题乐园，料将有大批游客前去体验曾经史上最高票房电影——《阿凡达》。不过，第二座将开放的乐园可能吸引力更大，即2019年将在加州迪士
尼乐园及华特迪士尼世界好莱坞影城开幕的“星球大战”主题乐园。

过去六个月，迪士尼股价一直走势强劲。去年10月中，迪士尼首席执行官鲍勃·艾格警告2017财年盈利势头可能减弱，原因是ESPN得斥资几十亿美元与美国职业篮球协会（NBA）续约转播权。消息一出，迪士尼的股价应声下跌，触及低点每股90.32美元的低点后一路反弹，目前累计涨幅超过24%。