【Business 0328】发展迅速，吉利准备进军发达国家市场

刘颖

China's Geely Automobile Holdings posted its biggest profit growth in eight years on Wednesday, as improved product design and engineering following its 2010 purchase of Sweden's Volvo helped propel it to record sales.

Geely, which also owns the maker of London's black cabs, has already forecast a 31% jump in sales for the current year as affordable models introduced after the Volvo acquisition, such as its GC9 sedan and Boyue sport-utility vehicle, exceed initial estimates.

Long seen as a no-frills brand, Geely has transformed itself into an automaker with up-market aspirations, using its Volvo research-and-development advantage to climb the sales table in the world's largest auto market where it ranks around seventh.

Come next year, Geely plans its next phase of expansion as it aims to become China's first automaker to market its own brand - new Volvo collaboration Lynk & Co - in developed markets, beginning with Europe and the United States.

Entering major markets with an unknown Chinese brand is an expensive risk, analysts say, but investors are unperturbed: Geely's share price has trebled over the past 12 months.

"It's a total turnaround story," said a fund manager at a Taiwan-based investment firm that bought a significant amount of Geely stock last year.

"Before it was just a normal domestic brand, but after several new product launches it successfully elevated its brand image," said the person who was not authorized to speak publicly on the firm's investments and so declined to be identified.

Geely's China sales grew 50% last year to 766,000 vehicles, powered by the GC9 and Boyue, as well as small cars featuring Volvo technology. It aims to top 1 million this year, though could sell far more depending on market conditions, a Geely official with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

For 2016, net profit more than doubled to 5.1 billion yuan ($741 million), its strongest growth since 2008. The figure is set to rise 37% to 7 billion yuan in 2017, showed a Reuters poll of analyst estimates prior to Geely's Wednesday filing.

OVERSEAS GAMBLE

To be sure, growth has come at a cost. Geely and parent Zhejiang Geely Holding Group have spent 10 billion yuan on R&D in each of the past three to four years, or about 15% of current revenue, said spokesman Victor Yang.

That compared with 2 billion yuan in 2015 at domestic rival BYD, showed Thomson Reuters data.

But Geely's domestic growth spurts could lessen as expansion in China's overall passenger car market slows following the reduction of subsidies for small-engine vehicles, adding impetus to any international push.

"The current focus of our work is firstly the pace of development in China and increasing our share of the Chinese auto market, then next we can focus our work abroad," Geely Chairman Li Shufu told reporters in Beijing earlier this month.

But entering markets where the brand is unknown is a gamble, and it could take years to gain traction, said James Chao, Asia-Pacific chief of consultancy IHS Markit Automotive.

As there is plenty of room for growth in China, however, there is no need to be concerned about the move abroad, said fund managers at two investment firms that hold Geely stock.

"If they do well abroad it's a bonus, and if they don't then it's not a big reason to worry," one of the managers said.

刘颖

TRANSLATIONS

吉利汽车上周三披露的利润增速达到八年来的最高点，原因是2010年收购瑞典沃尔沃后吉利提高了产品设计和工程水平，从而推动销量创下历史记录。

作为伦敦黑色出租车制造厂的所有者，因收购沃尔沃后推出的GC9和博越等平价车型的表现超过了初步预期，吉利已预计今年汽车销量将猛增31%。

作为长期以来别人眼中的廉价品牌，吉利已经转型为志在高端的汽车厂商。借助沃尔沃的研发优势，吉利正在勇攀中国这个全球最大汽车市场的销量排名榜，目前汽车销量大概处在第七位。

明年，吉利计划实施下一阶段的扩张计划——该公司打算成为首家在发达市场推广自有品牌的中国汽车制造商。由吉利和沃尔沃合作推出的新品牌Lynk & Co，将率先登陆欧洲和美国。

分析师说，用不知名的中国品牌进入主要市场是一次高代价冒险；但投资者并未受此影响——12个月来吉利的股价已经上涨了200%。

一家台湾投资公司去年买进了大量吉利股份。该公司一位基金经理称：“这是个纯粹的反转故事。”

这位基金经理指出：“以前它只是个普通的国内品牌，但推出几款新产品后，吉利已经成功地提升了自己的品牌形象。”由于未得到公开谈论本公司投资的授权，该基金经理要求不透露其姓名。

去年，吉利的国内销量增长了50%，达到76.6万辆，动力来自GC9、博越以及采用了沃尔沃技术的小型车。掌握第一手信息的吉利管理人员对路透社表示，该公司今年的销售目标是超过100万辆，但实际销量有可能高的多，具体数字要看市场情况。

去年，吉利实现净利润51亿元（7.41亿美元），增长了一倍以上，是2008年以来的最大增幅。路透社在周三业绩出炉前对分析师进行了调查，后者预计

今年吉利的净利润将上升37%，达到70亿元。

海外豪赌

增长当然有代价。吉利汽车发言人杨学良称，在过去的3-4年中，吉利及其母公司吉利控股每年的研发支出都达到100亿元，约占今年收入预期的15%。
与之相比，汤森路透的数据显示，吉利的国内对手比亚迪2015年的研发支出为20亿元。

不过，吉利在国内的迅猛增长可能减速，原因是小排量车补贴缩水后整个中国乘用车市场增速放缓，这会进一步促使汽车厂商迈向国际市场。

本月初，吉利控股董事长李书福在北京对记者表示：“目前我们的工作重点首先是国内的发展节奏和扩大国内汽车市场份额，然后才会把注意力集中到海外。”

但咨询公司IHS Markit Automotive亚太区首席顾问詹姆斯•曹认为，用不知名品牌进行市场开拓是一场赌博，而且打响知名度可能需要几年时间。

与之相反，两家持股吉利的投资公司中有基金经理指出，由于国内增长空间充足，所以不需要担心吉利的海外动作。

其中一位基金经理称：“海外业务表现良好是额外收获，如果表现不好，也不必因此而感到担心。”