全球最大时尚零售商正扑向中国

刘颖

Spain's Inditex, owner of the Zara chain and the world's biggest fashion retailer, is optimistic about long-term growth in China despite the slowing economy, as demand for its affordable fashion stays robust.

Inditex, whose Zara brand has lured shoppers this season with a minimalist straight-cut look, teaming muted colors with ankle boots and trousers, makes about 7 percent of its sales in China, analysts estimate.

Western luxury brands like Burberry and Hugo Boss are suffering from cooling Chinese demand, but mid-market names like Adidas and Zara are faring better.

"We have no doubt that in China the fashion appetite is large, our brands are better and better known and ... we are still feeling very optimistic (over a five-year view)," Chief Executive Pablo Isla told analysts on Thursday.

The group made a sprightly start to the Christmas season as its on-trend offerings allowed it to adapt better than rivals.

Sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 3 rose 15 percent in local currencies, suggesting a slight slowdown in same-store sales from the previous three months. But analysts said it was still a strong performance given rivals like Top Shop have had a slow start to Christmas trading due to mild weather.

"We can say that Inditex is trading just as strongly in the fourth quarter to date as it did in the third," SocieteGenerale analyst Anne Critchlow said.

In the nine months to end October, net profit rose by a fifth to 2.02 billion euros ($2.2 billion) on sales up 16 percent to 14.7 billion.

Isla said newer brands like Zara Home, Bershka and Stradivarius had performed particularly well.

Gross margin, a closely-watched measure of profitability, slipped slightly to 58.8 percent, as the strong dollar pushed up prices of garments sourced in Asia, though this affects Inditex less than its peers.

Inditex sources more goods in or near Europe, helping it adapt more quickly to fashion tastes and speedily deliver new ranges.

Inditex shares, up 37 percent this year, were down 1.5 percent by 1037 GMT, versus a 0.7 percent fall in the European retail sector.

Many market watchers have flagged the rich valuation of the stock, trading at around 34 times 2016 projected earnings, according to Reuters data, versus 24 times for rival Hennes&Mauritz.

刘颖

拥有Zara连锁店的西班牙Inditex集团是全球最大时尚零售企业。它对中国的长期增长持乐观态度，并未受到经济放缓的影响，原因是对该公司平价时尚产品的需求依然旺盛。

Inditex旗下的Zara品牌本季推出了极简主义直纹裁服装，短靴和裤子采用柔和的颜色，很受购物者欢迎。分析师估算，中国市场约占Inditex销售额的7%。

中国需求降温对博柏利和Hugo Boss等西方奢侈品牌产生了不利影响，阿迪达斯和Zara等中档品牌的表现则较好。

12月10日，Inditex首席执行官帕布罗•伊斯拉对分析师表示：“中国市场的时尚需求巨大，我们的品牌在中国的知名度越来越高，对此我们深信不疑……我们仍然觉得（今后五年的情况）非常乐观。”

该集团今年圣诞季开局良好，符合潮流的产品使得它比竞争对手更适应环境的变化。

按当地货币计算，11月1日-12月3日Inditex的销售额上升了15%，也就是说同店销售额比此前三个月略有下降。但分析师指出，受温暖天气影响，Top Shop等竞争对手在圣诞季均起步缓慢，因此Inditex的表现依然强劲。

法国兴业银行分析师安妮•克利奇罗认为：“可以说进入第四季度后Inditex的表现和三季度一样好。”

今年2-10月，该集团净利润增长了20%，达到20.2亿欧元（22亿美元）；销售额147亿欧元，增幅为16%。

伊斯拉透露，Zara Home、Bershka和Stradivarius等较新品牌表现得特别好。

作为备受关注的利润率指标，Inditex的毛利润率为58.8%，略有下降，原因是强劲的美元提高了亚洲采购服装的价格，只是它对Inditex竞争对手的影响更大。

Inditex提高了欧洲及周边地区的采购量，这有助于该公司更快地适应时尚品味的变化，并迅速推出新的系列产品。

今年初以来Inditex的股价上升了37%。笔者撰写本文时其股价下跌了1.5%，而欧洲零售板块的跌幅为0.7%。

许多市场观察人士都指出Inditex估值偏高。路透社数据显示，该公司股价为2016年预期每股盈利为34倍，而竞争对手Hennes&Mauritz的市盈率为24倍。